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Though news on the Ebola virus has been muted since two American health care workers were admitted to U.S.-based facilities last month, the deadly contagion continues to spread. According to the World Health Organization more than 40% of all Ebola cases thus far have occurred in just the last three months, suggesting that the virus is continuing to build steam.

Physicist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston is one of several researchers trying to figure out how far Ebola may spread and how many people around the world could be affected. Based on his findings, there will be 10,000 cases by September of this year and it only gets worse from there.

(A model created by Alessandro Vespignani and his colleagues suggests that, at its current spread, Ebola may infect up to 10,000 people by September 24. Other models suggest up to 100,000 infected globally by December of this year. The shaded area is the variability range.)

Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren’t stepped up. “We all hope to see this NOT happening,” Vespigani writes in an e-mail.

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Read More  U.S. Preps For Ebola Outbreak: Cases May Exceed 100,000 By December: “The Numbers Are Really Scary”.